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?時(shí)隔3年，亞馬遜于12.12日在深圳會(huì)展中心舉辦了疫情后的第一場峰會(huì)，現(xiàn)場燈光四溢，展會(huì)攤位人頭聳動(dòng)，官方也很給面子，數(shù)位大佬出席共襄盛舉，總之好一派熱鬧景象。lee同相熟的亞馬遜招商經(jīng)理聊了聊，據(jù)說參加此次深圳峰會(huì)第一天就有2W+賣家，線上蝴蝶號估計(jì)還有百萬人次觀看（數(shù)據(jù)未經(jīng)證實(shí)），會(huì)展中心6789幾個(gè)館人聲鼎沸，交流基本靠吼。在這個(gè)糟心的2023年即將結(jié)束的時(shí)候，似乎每個(gè)人都在急切的證明自己沒有虛度這一年，于是在展會(huì)各個(gè)角落沖出來給你派名片的一眾服務(wù)商急了，急于年底KPI的沖刺和明年新客戶的開發(fā)；賣家急了，急于搞清楚亞馬遜明年還是否值得再投入；亞馬遜自己也急了，急于證明你大爺還是你大爺，只要我不急，你們賣家都不要急。

言歸正傳，在各方角色粉墨登場的這幾天，12.12峰會(huì)的巔峰對話依然是濃墨重彩的一筆。lee在線上看了一遍直播回放，受益良多，覺得有必要開個(gè)貼來仔細(xì)解讀這次對話，試圖和大家一起探究亞馬遜在2024年的野望。由于對話將近半小時(shí)，因此Lee決定分為上下兩篇進(jìn)行解讀，本篇為上篇。

下面簡單介紹下這場對話：
主題：科技新浪潮下的全球電商發(fā)展之道??
嘉賓：Eric Broussard（亞馬遜全球副總裁，第三方國際業(yè)務(wù)負(fù)責(zé)人）

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和Cindy Tai（亞馬遜全球副總裁，亞馬遜全球開店亞太區(qū)執(zhí)行總裁）

這2人的對話從當(dāng)天14.05分開始到14.33分結(jié)束，基本形式是cindy代表賣家發(fā)問，eric回復(fù)。Lee覺得這是主戰(zhàn)略發(fā)布會(huì)最有價(jià)值的對話了，摘錄重點(diǎn)如下并逐段解讀，理解如果有了偏差，敬請斧正 (直播的翻譯字幕實(shí)在看不下去，Lee自己聽譯了一部分，語速太快的地方用軟件翻譯了一部分，最后匯總改了下語法，可能和原文有出入，Lee英語就是剛過四級的水平，大家將就看吧）：

Cindy: So, Eric, what do you think some of the latest e-commerce trends that our global sellers should know about??

Eric：Maybe we should start with what's NOT changing, and what's NOT changing is that all customers everywhere…… across the world are looking for more selections, lower prices and more convenience. These are the 3 pillars of our strategy, and more than ever, customers are very sensitive to this. We really like these principles because they're really unlikely to change over time.

Lee的解讀：第一個(gè)問題問關(guān)于電子商務(wù)未來趨勢的，Eric很聰明，沒有接這個(gè)話題，先說了一段消費(fèi)在未來不會(huì)發(fā)生變化的三個(gè)原則，注意這里他換了2個(gè)概念：
把 最新趨勢 換成? 不會(huì)隨時(shí)間變換的原則
把 電子商務(wù)領(lǐng)域 換成 消費(fèi)者關(guān)心的領(lǐng)域

所以大佬之所以成為大佬是有原因的，很輕松就把一個(gè)非常大的不知道從何說起的話題，找到一個(gè)很小很精準(zhǔn)的切入點(diǎn)去展開，不會(huì)被提問者帶節(jié)奏牽著鼻子走。

那么他回答Cindy的問題了嘛？這一段好像回答了，好像又沒回答，簡稱：如答。
以上是作為行業(yè)外人士的視角開個(gè)玩笑，外行看熱鬧，內(nèi)行看門道，我們作為賣家，還是要仔細(xì)去看下這位大佬的發(fā)言，因?yàn)檫@一段在整個(gè)對話中起到了提綱挈領(lǐng)的作用，后續(xù)大篇幅的論證都是圍繞這個(gè)主題展開的。

劃重點(diǎn)：
1.消費(fèi)者永遠(yuǎn)追尋，且不以時(shí)間推移而發(fā)生變化，且亞馬遜認(rèn)同的消費(fèi)三原則：

• 更低價(jià)——lower prices
• 更方便——more convenience
• 更多選擇——more selections

2. more than ever, customers are very sensitive to this ——消費(fèi)下行的環(huán)境，消費(fèi)者對上述三原則愈加敏感和在意了。

ok，下一段Eric繼續(xù)展開論證：
You know what I'm saying? It's Not because we're going to be launching in a new country that customers going to come to us to say: “Woooooow…… Your prices are too low" That is just not going to happen.?
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I've been very fortunate to be on Amazon for a really long time, and when I joined back to 98, we already was the earth's largest selection and I just want to ensure that you all know, this is still day one, we still need a lot more selection. An example of this is the B2B segment, the fastest growing segment at 35 billion dollars in sales across the world. We all feel it's completely Day One. Thirty five billion dollars? ——We're barely scratching the surface of all the customer needs across the world.

Lee的解讀：好吧，Eric也怕我們看不懂，所以用Amazon自己的歷程來舉例：他在1998年加入亞馬遜的時(shí)候，亞馬遜已經(jīng)是世界最大的零售平臺(tái)了。但是他們依然會(huì)把心態(tài)歸零，認(rèn)為自己是創(chuàng)業(yè)第一天（插一句，Day One這個(gè)概念是光頭Jeff提出的，且在亞馬遜企業(yè)文化里反復(fù)被提及）。更為具體的，他提到B2B業(yè)務(wù)是今年增長最快的業(yè)務(wù)（350億美元），但是他們依然認(rèn)為是Day One, 這只是全世界消費(fèi)體系下的冰山一角。

所以這段跟上面的消費(fèi)三原則有什么關(guān)系？
Lee認(rèn)為這一段和前文關(guān)系的連接在這一句：this is still day one, we still need a lot more selection

劃重點(diǎn)：亞馬遜在20年前已經(jīng)在消費(fèi)領(lǐng)域做到一家獨(dú)大了，但是他們?nèi)匀徽J(rèn)為這還不夠，依然需要為消費(fèi)者提供更多的選擇。即使是現(xiàn)在高速發(fā)展的B2B業(yè)務(wù)，他們也懷著謙卑的Day One心態(tài)認(rèn)為做的不夠，所以這里Eric的潛臺(tái)詞是：作為一手掌握賣家信息，一手掌握買家需求的亞馬遜，在撮合交易的掮客角色扮演中，其實(shí)一直秉持一個(gè)觀點(diǎn)：人的欲望是沒有盡頭的，消費(fèi)者想要的選擇也是無窮無盡的，20年前他們就明白這個(gè)道理了，貫穿到現(xiàn)在，始終如一。

說到這里，插個(gè)題外話，Lee經(jīng)常聽到有人動(dòng)不動(dòng)就嚷嚷要具備底層邏輯，底層思維這些話，打廣告也要明白底層，作圖寫listing也要明白底層，Lee深信一點(diǎn)，拼命強(qiáng)調(diào)的正是你不具備的，每天喊底層那只能證明你從來沒有扎根到泥土里，亞馬遜20年前就洞悉了消費(fèi)者的“底層需求”，但他們不是喊出來，而是靠不停地自我更新迭代去滿足消費(fèi)者需求的。

終歸是知易行難，做比說重要。

ok，我們繼續(xù)看下一段：
At the same time customers are more and more looking for quality and value. Lower prices, greater quality branded products will come back to that are really important to our customers. This is why we invested so much in delivering holiday events with millions of deals to benefit customers and it's you know, it's always important to provide customers with a great deal but he even more so in the current economy. These events prime day and black friday cyber monday have been our largest ever demonstrating the continued moment?in our business. Chinese sellers had a huge contribution to these.?You see a lot of these examples behind me, but to take a couple，Baleaf（百樂弗）, a Chinese sports appeal achieve a remarkable 110% increasing in their sales gowth in the US,?but not only the US, also in Europe, in Japan, in Australia I mentioned Baleaf because our next speaker, Russell, will talk about what tools and and advertising strategies they implementeded to build that global brand across the country. So I thought it was very relevant to the discussion. Another one is Revopoint-3D（知象光電） A large 3d scanner business. Not only did they grow their sales in b2b by?170% across the year, they also entered the b2b business and started growing that segment as well, contributing to their diversification and providing all to be customers better, better products.
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Lee的解讀：前段對話中Eric闡述了消費(fèi)三原則中的more selections，這段繼續(xù)解釋Lower Price原則，這段很好理解，亞馬遜設(shè)計(jì)了這么多的促銷活動(dòng)就是為了在當(dāng)下經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境中刺激消費(fèi)，促進(jìn)購買。有意思的是，他在這里直接點(diǎn)名了在黑五，網(wǎng)一等大促活動(dòng)中中國賣家的“貢獻(xiàn)”，結(jié)合Lee在如果亞馬遜有康波周期，我們目前處于波峰還是底谷？一文里總結(jié)的黑五網(wǎng)一順周期賣家的表現(xiàn)，就差直接念身份證號了：
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順周期產(chǎn)品在黑五的表現(xiàn)：
響應(yīng)sb廣告經(jīng)理的要求，黑五前開品牌，展示， ASIN定位 TV通通開啟，acos爆了我據(jù)理力爭，不慌，這是蓄客階段；
順便給個(gè)1刀新增一個(gè)乞丐組平衡下acos；
大促前3天廣告預(yù)算從1倍遞增1.5倍，大促2倍；
大促當(dāng)天先跑黑五專享，今年標(biāo)志跟LD一模一樣，感覺白撿了500刀，心里美滋滋，順便diss一下報(bào)了LD的傻鳥同事；
報(bào)了LD的心想我就是全村的希望，是人類之光，你們拿來炫耀的翻倍記錄靠我carry，不說了我加預(yù)算去了；
做了DOTD的：手握日月摘星辰, 世間無我這般人

寫到這里L(fēng)ee不禁感慨，這輕飄飄的貢獻(xiàn)二字，放在當(dāng)下背景，恐怕是無數(shù)亞馬遜中小賣家的一部血淚史，也是這個(gè)時(shí)代跨境從業(yè)者的一曲悲歌?；蛟S在若干年以后，后人翻開這段歷史一查，這歷史沒有年代，歪歪斜斜的每頁上都寫著“huge contribution”幾個(gè)字。仔細(xì)看了半天，才從字縫里看出字來，滿本都寫著諸如“內(nèi)卷”慈善”的字眼，最后，滿篇滿頁都化成“吃人”兩個(gè)字。

劃重點(diǎn)：
1. it's always important to provide customers with a great deal but he even more so in the current economy.——亞馬遜也承認(rèn)，這個(gè)稀爛的經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境里只有用更多更大額的deal來討好消費(fèi)者
2. Lower prices, greater quality branded products will come back to that are really important to our customers——價(jià)格不是消費(fèi)者選你的唯一指標(biāo)，低價(jià)+優(yōu)質(zhì)+品牌商品才是消費(fèi)者首選
3.?contributing to their diversification——再次提到多元化，對應(yīng)更多選擇

OK, 談到這里，Eric關(guān)于Cindy第一個(gè)問題電商的最新趨勢回答完畢。我們看Cindy的下一個(gè)問題：
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Cindy:?Yeah, yes for sure. We're very excited to see so many Chinese sellers in this past black friday event do so well. So, Eric, how's the e-commerce segment trending around the world?
感覺Cindy把第一個(gè)問題又問了一遍，可能也在提示Eric別在那吹水了，趕緊整點(diǎn)干貨吧。
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Eric:?2023 is turning to be a good year, especially in light of, you know, what we've seen in the past few years. You know we've seen a recovery of the consumer consumption across the world. Worldwide retail e commerce seems to be back to a more stable growth in 2023 after this UPS and down. I was just mentioning to give you just a couple numbers e commerce gross rates, a increase from 6.5% in 2022 to which was, you know, the lowest in five years to 8.9% in 2023 in the us at number 9.3% you know, and is expected to exceed 10% next year. So it's very reassuring and very energizing to see this back to more stable growth thatables, our sell sellers to more steadily build their business. These gross rates are just mentioned and you can see some of them behind me. They translate into very good opportunities for you as a seller community. In fact, worldwide e commerce retail transactions will reach 8 trillion US dollars in 2027. That's a ke of 8.6% from 2023 and these numbers make a lot of sense. Y?ou know, e commerce as a percentage of total retail sale is still very low. It's 15.6% in the US, 13%?in the EU and something like 13.9% in Japan. So the room for growth is very true. It is really stupendous.?

Lee的解讀：也許是Cindy的提示起了作用，Eric在這段趕緊展望一下未來告訴大家未來會(huì)更好。這一段有很多關(guān)于未來發(fā)展數(shù)據(jù)的預(yù)測，具體的數(shù)據(jù)Lee就不一一復(fù)述了，見重點(diǎn)
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劃重點(diǎn)：這段都是用預(yù)測來給賣家畫餅，沒有重點(diǎn)
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。
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。
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開個(gè)玩笑啦，這里還是有幾個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)值得看的：
1. Worldwide retail e commerce seems to be back to a more stable growth in 2023 after this UPS and down——這句話說的是運(yùn)費(fèi)的下調(diào)帶來毛利率的上升，給全球電子商務(wù)市場的消費(fèi)復(fù)蘇帶來契機(jī)。說實(shí)話Lee只能同意半句，因?yàn)檫\(yùn)費(fèi)下調(diào)給temu帶來的契機(jī)一定是大于Amazon的
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2.?e commerce as a percentage of total retail sale is still very low. It's 15.6% in the US, 13%?in the EU and something like 13.9% in Japan——Lee尤記得三年疫情的時(shí)候，當(dāng)時(shí)很多人喊出疫情徹底改變了消費(fèi)者的購物習(xí)慣，線下將會(huì)消亡，線上才是趨勢，沒想到理想很豐滿現(xiàn)實(shí)很骨感，盡管電商取得了快速發(fā)展，在整個(gè)零售業(yè)的占比依然是弟中弟，線下消費(fèi)才是是零售業(yè)的大頭。或許導(dǎo)致亞馬遜流量乏力的，不僅僅是來自temu等友商的蠶食，一部分的消費(fèi)習(xí)慣重新轉(zhuǎn)回線下也起到了推波助瀾的作用。由此可見，習(xí)慣養(yǎng)成后所產(chǎn)生的慣性依賴是非常強(qiáng)大的。品牌在哪里，消費(fèi)者就去哪里，不管它是在線上還是線下，這也許就是做品牌的意義所在吧。
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很有意思的一個(gè)現(xiàn)象是，在北美，歐洲和日本這些發(fā)達(dá)國家，線上消費(fèi)只有13%-15%的占比，大家猜下這個(gè)數(shù)字在中國是多少？
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——2023年上半年，全國網(wǎng)上零售額達(dá)7.16萬億元，同比增長13.1%。其中，實(shí)物商品網(wǎng)上零售額6.06萬億元，增長10.8%，占社會(huì)消費(fèi)品零售總額的比重為26.6%
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萬萬沒想到，小丑竟是我自己，文明的燈塔，人類的希望屹立在世界東方。
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另外，Lee有理由相信，基于我們國家冠絕全球的基礎(chǔ)交通設(shè)施建設(shè)和便捷的移動(dòng)端支付功能，才造就了中國如此高的線上消費(fèi)比例，26.6%這個(gè)數(shù)字可能在全球都是排在#1（Lee猜的，沒有驗(yàn)證），那么美國，歐洲再怎么發(fā)展線上（Lee不提日本是因?yàn)樗谝苿?dòng)浪潮中已經(jīng)掉隊(duì)了，發(fā)展乏力），其實(shí)天花板也就是26.6%左右了，所以Eirc在這里挺雞賊的，如果光說13.1%這個(gè)數(shù)字大家可能覺得離100%還有很大的發(fā)展空間，但實(shí)際路已經(jīng)走了一半了，再翻一倍就已經(jīng)到頭了。
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嗯，這一波，我們遙遙領(lǐng)先。
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言歸正傳，我們再看Cindy的第三個(gè)問題：
Cindy：That's great. Sounds like there's a lot more growth opportunities for our sellers around the world now. We know that Amazon is very diversified, Eric, So sellers may wonder how important is the seller business for Amazon and also what are Amazon's key initiatives next year to help sellers succeed?
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從這個(gè)問題開始觸及核心了，直接問的是賣家業(yè)務(wù)對亞馬遜的重要性和明年賣家成功的關(guān)鍵因素, 那么Eric的回復(fù)從這里開始也漸漸有了更多的干貨(這段透露的玄機(jī)太多，以至于到處都是重點(diǎn))：
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Eric: sellers, you, play an absolutely critical role?in delivering our visions of charges selection. You've really transformed the customer experience, our customer having an Amazon across the world. As russ mentioned earlier, we've got over near 2 million sellers worldwide providing this incredible array of products to consumers. As you mentioned as well, last quarter sellers presented the majority of the units purchased on Amazon over 60% or largest number ever. So that you know, should convince everyone that sort absolutely critically important to us. This is why we're continue to improving because this customer and seller experience to give you a sense of the investments. We've got over 28,000 people dedicated to the center business and every year we invest billions in logistics.?And every year when invest billions in logistics tools, services, programs and teams to help our sellers get started, but also continue to grow business, when I of course, so some of the focus on 2024 will include creating new incremental business opportunities. b2b?is an example I gave. You will talk a little bit more about international expansion which is another you know area of investment that's really, really exciting. Second will be innovating and providing new products and features to hand the seller oppression, excell science and efficiency. We want sellers to do more with less and we'll come back to a couple technologies were you know doubling down. Third we're going to help continues helping selllers lowering their cost and help them become more profitable.?
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這段重點(diǎn)太多，直接劃重點(diǎn)吧：
1.?last quarter sellers presented the majority of the units purchased on Amazon over 60% or largest number ever——如果Lee理解的沒錯(cuò)的話，這里的sellers是指的第三方賣家，也就是說，包含了VC，Amazon Basics等自營業(yè)務(wù)，依然占據(jù)了40%的業(yè)務(wù)量，Lee記得在去年年底就開始有傳聞為了應(yīng)對反壟斷，亞馬遜在縮減自營比例，亞馬遜也采取了一些例如取消Amazon Accelerator（品牌加速器計(jì)劃）等措施，然而雷聲大雨點(diǎn)小，減了這么久，竟然還有40%，況且先砍的是加入了品牌加速器計(jì)劃的這種“偽自營”第三方品牌，到今年8月份的時(shí)候，又砍了一批運(yùn)營成績不佳的自營品牌，你說Amazon在積極應(yīng)對反壟斷了嗎？好像是的，你說實(shí)際效果怎么樣呢？我們賣家估計(jì)還是一肚子苦水要說，隨便舉個(gè)例子，現(xiàn)在的Amazon Basics好像在流量壟斷上更不要臉了。所以好像反壟斷了，又好像沒有，簡稱如反。
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2.?We've got over 28,000 people dedicated to the center business and every year we invest billions in logistics. And every year when invest billions in logistics tools——Lee聽到這一段的時(shí)候心里真的涼了半截，光一個(gè)亞馬遜物流就有2.8W員工（Lee估計(jì)還沒算臨時(shí)工和非全職員工進(jìn)去），每年要投入數(shù)十億美金研發(fā)費(fèi)用，如果算上員工工資，亞馬遜物流部門妥妥是個(gè)吞金獸，所以大家現(xiàn)在明白FBA fee為什么每年必漲了吧？羊毛出在羊身上，賣家都在割肉支持亞馬遜做到更快的物流配送，給客人帶來更好的口碑，但是這個(gè)口碑不是給到我們賣家的，而是給到Fullfillment by Amazon的，這種口碑反過來更加固了FBA的地位，從而讓亞馬遜更肆無忌憚的漲價(jià)——最終變成了：你用的每次FBA，都是FBA漲價(jià)的理由
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3.?b2b?is an example I gave——注意這場對話中b2b已經(jīng)出現(xiàn)N次了，重要的事情說三遍，這基本是在打明牌告訴我們B2B很重要，Lee大膽猜測亞馬遜深耕C端這么多年，在C端增長漸漸觸及天花板的時(shí)候，開始切入小B市場，明年一定有更多B2B的政策推出，鼓勵(lì)我們賣家在B端市場去競爭
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4.?We want sellers to do more with less and we'll come back to a couple technologies were you know doubling down——這個(gè)字面意思是會(huì)用一系列的技術(shù)來讓賣家的效率提升，光看這句可能摸不到頭腦，但是結(jié)合Lee之前寫的亞馬遜老人如何看待2024年美國站物流費(fèi)用和銷售傭金調(diào)整和促銷？?里關(guān)于強(qiáng)推AWD+AGL的分析，很明顯這就是亞馬遜用所謂的全鏈路供應(yīng)鏈服務(wù)來減少賣家篩選、溝通的成本，從而提升效率。一個(gè)賣家的一生，從搖籃到墳?zāi)?，亞馬遜都給你包辦好了，你只管無腦用服務(wù)，其他交給亞馬遜就好。
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5.?helping selllers lowering their cost and help them become more profitable——參考上面同一篇帖子里的分析，F(xiàn)BA fee的下降是為數(shù)不多的好消息。
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行文至此，Lee看了字?jǐn)?shù)統(tǒng)計(jì)，已過5000，就在這里結(jié)束上篇的分析吧。下半場對話請繼續(xù)關(guān)注Lee發(fā)布的?2023年亞馬遜全球峰會(huì)深度解讀特別篇之《巔峰對話：科技新浪潮下的全球電商發(fā)展之道 下》
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未完待續(xù)